Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82109.750841 86657.354477 91201.178070 96078.627473 101162.672641 106302.524970 111888.212502
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 74728.842071 81702.320657 88862.671118 96754.154360 105196.898316 113948.185574 123694.494717
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 69056.269262 77657.189889 86681.585037 96835.032985 107918.947806 119629.690391 132916.245728
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65496.789704 75401.029401 85980.536747 98086.990577 111521.093600 125935.116522 142532.856227
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 61571.798603 72392.374595 84137.333409 97781.135642 113141.210015 129845.040873 149328.635145
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59391.104626 71130.398393 84051.981354 99259.609445 116594.183289 135663.522917 158150.970622
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57164.515441 69651.430085 83575.367322 100160.794884 119282.197268 140538.923820 165855.581074
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 54689.153509 67740.129534 82473.996359 100225.043387 120910.744799 144133.446675 172048.355532
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52332.191418 65845.332197 81281.227264 100079.204359 122206.700421 147277.346114 177674.070070
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51265.203561 65410.115773 81737.081161 101810.046268 125648.495845 152875.703401 186135.652705
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50274.595793 65005.497393 82178.165317 103481.409487 128992.663655 158350.924301 194466.211156
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48863.752581 64024.528167 81873.180705 104212.632349 131185.246420 162455.575254 201187.304417
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47068.432490 62533.189768 80927.583009 104163.398039 132457.239457 165509.890640 206737.750083
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45629.061596 61432.745558 80415.813451 104606.790565 134301.582004 169241.056369 213111.475595
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44072.494195 60126.992632 79600.023478 104631.419640 135601.660910 172299.205921 218675.271359
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43242.573293 59705.862121 79851.197653 105949.555711 138469.449638 177246.166221 226531.990476
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41683.959340 58296.552436 78816.378971 105621.175621 139272.781796 179665.939990 231317.401086
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41093.043362 58113.151748 79307.923972 107192.970585 142427.023215 184960.454288 239629.962746
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40260.639000 57582.282876 79330.731070 108151.157602 144803.619367 189301.696203 246791.930516
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39079.337795 56552.406653 78678.927499 108219.442817 146038.879991 192222.534753 252206.042099
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37860.494529 55434.215037 77878.069640 108064.355536 146966.005790 194745.311248 257123.822494
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37543.887623 55513.373992 78626.394883 109904.690229 150434.959372 200452.463372 266033.564087
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37218.723380 55565.696618 79329.105214 111681.424659 153827.438384 206080.227675 274877.238689